The Winter Meetings?
I’m a little late this year, as a couple of guys have already signed as of this posting (Omar Vizquel and Alex Gonzalez). However, if for nothing more than self gratification, I had to get our second annual prediction post out to the public. Here’s a slight re-introduction to what lies ahead:
Here is the list of, I’d wager to say 90%, of the MLB free agents for the 2009-2010 off-season. I say 90% because I left out some guys that I didn’t care too much for as well as all of the relievers who aren’t considered “Closers.” I did the latter for time constraints. In any event, the list here includes the players name, their upcoming baseball season age, a quick synopsis about them or about why I think they’re heading to a certain destination, and then finally, said destination. Scope out last year’s list here; I can tell you honestly, I didn’t fare too well. It seems free agents, on average, tend to sign with their previous team. But where’s the fun in that? Please feel free to comment if you agree, disagree, or if you wonder where I came up with some of the guesses. Without further ado, here is this year’s list…
Catchers
Brad Ausmus (41) – Every year I do this list and every year Brad Ausmus is on it. I knew the Astros would move on last off-season but I figured he’d go back to the Padres. This time around I’m saying he retires. Although he had the perfect job backing up a horse like Russel Martin, it’s not like he met up with Doc Brown in La-La land. (calls it a career, joins Bagwell in the luxury boxes at Minute Maid)
Paul Bako (38) – See above. Bako at least bats from the left side of the plate so he may get more tire kickers. Especially in the Dusty Baker mold that value left handedness late in games more than most. He and fellow teammate Scott Erye have already hinted towards 2009 being their last year and I think Bako doesn’t pull any Favre impressions. (retires, wouldn’t be surprised to see him appear in managing rumors in a few years)
Rod Barajas (34) – Type B – Big Rod loves to swing. He and Miguel Olivo must have running bets all season to see who has the highest percentage of swings or who has the lowest OBP. He certainly can “run into one” when given a meatball as his 19 home runs state. And supposedly he’s a whiz when it comes to calling games. I think they Jays move on, but between Molina, Barajas, and Olivo, you have essentially the same guy, so all three will have the same teams chasing them, with Molina being the first guy to sign. I like him in Kansas City. (Signs 1 year $3.25 million deal w/ Kansas City Royals.)
Josh Bard (32) – I thought Bard would be with the Red Sox all year and take playing time away from Varitek back when the Sox signed him just before spring training. Come to find out, he still can’t catch the knuckler, and off to baseball obscurity he went to play for Washington Nationals organization. There, he put up pretty pedestrian back-up numbers, enough to earn him an NRI and a minor league deal this year, too. (re-signs Minor League deal w/ Washington Nationals)
Michael Barrett (33) – club option – This option will not be picked up and Michael Barrett will not play in the Majors next year. He might pop up in some Indy leagues but he’s been awfully fragile the past couple years. And when an offensive minded catcher loses his offensive mind, secondary skills are a must. (retires/does not sign.)
Henry Blanco (38) – Ausmus through Blanco (sans Barajas) were on last year’s list and I went 0 for 4. Blanco signed with the Padres and was just another back up. This time around I think he’s going back to Colorado and replaces another Venezuelan in Yorvit Torrealba. (signs Minor League deal w/ Colorado Rockies){UPDATE: signed w/ New York Mets.}
Ramon Castro (34) – The Mets were happy to ship Ramon Castro off to Chicago’s South Side. There he was thought to be a decent caddy to A.J. Pierzynski. He ended up putting up similar numbers to everyone else on this list so far. I think they bring him back on a cheap contract and probably DFA him when Tyler Flowers comes up, whether Flowers catches or not, that’s another story. (re-signs w/ Chicago Whites Sox, minor league deal)
Chris Coste (37) – Another late 30’s backup catcher on the table. Coste was flipped to the Astros mid season to help with their catching problems. He put up, again, similar numbers to the rest of this group. I think Houston brings him back because they flat out don’t have anyone else. What’s the harm of letting Coste and Humberto Quintero battle out a roster spot in February? I’m sure it will be exhilarating. (stays put, Minor League deal w/ Houston Astros){UPDATE: Signed w/ New York Mets.}
Toby Hall (34) – Toby Hall had shoulder surgery and missed all of the year. Houston may bring him back to help out their mess. Another obscure career back-up, he’ll resurface somewhere this season but won’t be up all year. (signs Minor League contract w/ Cleveland Indians)
Jason Kendall (36) – Type B – With no likely replacement, I think Kendall stays put. This guy will play until he can’t strap up the mask anymore… and then he’ll manage for another few decades. (re-signs w/ Milwaukee Brewers, 1 year $3.5 million){UPDATE: signed w/ Kansas City Royals.}
Jason LaRue (36) – St. Louis looks elsewhere for a back up to Yadier Molina, I think Jose joins him so he can work with both brothers. Just like a lot of his colleagues, LaRue will find it hard to find work. (remains un-signed/retires){UPDATE: re-signed w/ St. Louis Cardinals.}
Chad Moeller (35) – recently out righted, Moeller has already been linked back with Baltimore. Organizational depth is all. (stays put, re-signs Minor League deal w/ Baltimore Orioles){UPDATE: re-signed w/ Baltimore Orioles.}
Bengie Molina (35) – Type A – Los Gigantes will most certainly offer arbitration to Bengie Molina. If he declines, they’ll get some picks from whomever he signs with, if he accepts, they have him short term on a non-guaranteed contract to help mold Buster Posey. I think they finally move on since he wants more than one year. Call me crazy, but I like the Yankees here. Posada is more of a DH at this point they’re a few years away from their top prospect being ready. (signs w/ New York Yankees.)
Jose Molina (35) – always a back up, never a starter, this Molina backs up his younger brother, Yadier, to see if he can bottle some of that late career senior circuit magic. (signs w/ St. Louis Cardinals)
Miguel Olivo (31) – $3.25MM mutual option – Type B – The Royals may have to free agent catchers when it’s all said and done. My feelings are they should move away from both Olivo and Buck, considering they are almost the exact same one dimensional player. Dayton Moore brought Brayan Pena with him from Atlanta, and my feelings are you’re not going to contend anyway, save some money and see what he can do. Think outside the box. Think outside the sub .300 OBP box and stop lying to your fan base. You crook. (option declined, signs w/ New York Mets)
Mike Redmond (39) – Jose Morales, in my eyes, is more deserving of backing up Mauer than a 39 year old. No knock on Redmond, who’s been a pretty reliable back up, but I think it’s time to move on. (stays unsigned, retires)
Ivan Rodriguez (38) – Type B – a reunion with Texas has been in the cards. It would be especially fitting if George W. Bush purchases the team again. Hopefully this will be the off-season Texas deals away one of their young catching prospects. It’s not really fair to the player, i.e. Taylor Teagarden to back up Salty. Give one the job, trade the other. Unless the media has vastly over hyped their abilities or Jon Daniels is asking way too much, I don’t get why both are still Texas Rangers. Pudge would make a great mentor to either; especially since both of them probably idolized him with they were kids. (stays with Texas Rangers, 1 year $2.0 million){UPDATE: signed w/ Washington Nationals, 2 years.}
Brian Schneider (33) – Schneider had a nice little career, and had he played the majority of it outside of Montreal, he’d probably be a slight star. He was brought to New York on a highly ostracized deal, but the fact of the matter is he shored up the catching position for a couple of years for the Metropolitans. He’s no longer a starter but he might kick around a few years since he’s left handed. (returns to Canada, signs w/ Toronto Blue Jays, 1 year $950k + active roster bonuses){UPDATE: Signed w/ Philadelphia Phillies.}
Yorvit Torrealba (31) – $4MM mutual option with a $500K buyout - Type B – The Rox move on and I like Torrealba in a split starting role, a la Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan last year with the Reds. I like Torrealba with the Nationals to help out Jesus Flores. Their staff could use his game calling. (signs 2 year $10 million deal w/ Washington Nationals.)
Gregg Zaun (39) – $2MM club option with a $500K buyout; Zaun can void option – Gregg Zaun is your free agent leader in OBP (for catchers), a feat that shouldn’t go uncompensated. For all the Olivos and Barajas of the world, it’s nice to see someone at this age that isn’t against taking a stroll to first. His tour of the AL east ends, goes out west to help out some young back stops in Seattle. (signs w/ Seattle Mariners for $1.6 million){signed w/ Milwaukee Brewers.}
First basemen
Rich Aurilia (38) – for the love of God, San Fran, move on. I’ve been assuming this guy goes to the Mets for the past couple of years as a caddy to Carlos Delgado. They’re both old and bat opposite each other so they’d make good compliments. He’s already expressed interest in returning to the Bay, but I’m sure there is a youngster somewhere that is more deserving. (signs Minor League deal w/ Cincinnati Reds.)
Jeff Bailey (31) – Bailey has spent more time on rte 95 the past few years than he has actually playing baseball. Hyperbole aside, he and fellow former Red Sock, Chris Carter, would be decent platoon partners on a few different ball clubs. Either of them would have batted 5th for the Marlins or the Padres. Or even the Royals. First base is such a crucial position because it’s a power position. If you’re not Ryan Howard, then you better be J.T. Snow and pick every ball out of the dirt, meaning, Bailey will have, and always has had, a tough time finding an everyday gig. I’ll be rooting for him to find one, although, I enjoyed watching him mash at McCoy stadium the past few years. (signs Minor League deal w/ Baltimore Orioles.)
Hank Blalock (29) – Hitting free agency for the first time, Blalock should have a couple of suitors. I don’t believe he’ll be back in Arlington, nor do I think will he be relied on to have a full season at a position. Dayton Moore likes free swingers to clog up his DH spot, so watch for the Royals to make a run. Where ever he ends up it’ll be an incentive laden deal and if it’s cheap enough, the Marlins make some sense, especially if they non-tender or trade Jorge Cantu. (signs 1 year deal w/ Florida Marlins)
Russell Branyan (34) – Jack Z said upon signing Russell Branyan that he was prepared to give him the most at-bats he’s ever had. That ended up being the case and aside from the last couple months, his small/short contract paid dividends. Both sides welcome a return, and I believe that very thing happens. (re-signs, 2 year deal.)
Frank Catalanotto (36) – Big Cat split time between the Rangers and the Brew Crew this past season. Staying in the NL as a late inning pinch hitter is his best suited role these days. (stays put, re-ups with Milwaukee Brewers, 1 year deal.)
Carlos Delgado (38) – Type B – Delgado will be interesting to watch this winter; he’s up there in age and missed a huge chunk of time this past year. His previous year was rather productive, not enough so to warrant a return to the AL in my opinion. San Fran has a glaring need for an impact bat, I’m just not too sure if a 38 year old coming off a season ending injury is that bat. I like him on a one year incentive laden deal to return to the Mets. (signs 1 year $2 million + incentives w/ New York Mets.)
Nomar Garciaparra (36) – I was as surprised as any when Nomahh wasn’t dealt at either trade deadline. I thought for sure the Phillies would pick him up as a bench bat and I’m sure even his middle infield defense is better than Miguel Cairo’s at this point in their careers. I wouldn’t be shocked if he calls it quits after this past season. Oakland is as close to baseball obscurity as it gets these days so he probably enjoyed the lack of lime light. For some reason I like him with the Mets, only as a minor league deal. He fits in the corner infield spots to spell here and there as well as some pinch hitting duties. (signs 1-year deal w/ New York Mets)
Eric Hinske (32) – I’m happy for Ske for winning a ring. He seems to find himself on winning ball clubs. He won a ring with the Red Sox in ’07, was part of the Rays’ historic run in ’08, and then won a ring with the Yankees in ’09. He’s a very useful player and I’d hate to see him go to Japan, as I’ve heard some whispers to suggest he could lean that way for 2010. He makes the perfect “rover” as he can play first, left, and right, as well as be an emergency third basemen. He’s a lefty with some patience and pop so a National League team fits. He’s from Wisconsin so the Brewers and Twins also make some sense. If Seattle can’t bring back Branyan, I think Jack Z would try to bottle his magic and give Hinkse a similar role. Ultimately, I think he winds up in Baltimore and finishes his tour of the AL East. (Signs 2-year contract w/ Baltimore Orioles)
Nick Johnson (31) – Type B – When healthy, Nick Johnson is an extremely productive player. However, he’s rarely healthy. Some guys just get banged up more than others, and Nick Johnson will forever have that stigma attached to his name. He came up a Yankee but was shipped off to Montreal, and up until last year was still with that same organization. The Mets and Giants could have used him at the deadline and neither ended up with him, both will certainly kick some tires. Any GM would be crazy to hand over the first base job to him without a capable backup plan in place. That’s why I like the G-Men and the Orioles. Orioles have Ty Wigginton who could spell Johnson against southpaws as well as slide in when he goes on his annual DL stint. (Signs w/ Baltimore Orioles, 2 years $13 Million.)
Adam LaRoche (30) – Type B – Adam LaRoche had an interesting few fays at and around the trade deadline. Moved twice in a week, the second time coming back the franchise he made his start with. The Bravos don’t have too much in the upper minors that they would be better off with for 2010. This is a weak free agent class for first basemen, so unless they swap one of their starting pitchers for a big bopping first basemen, I believe LaRoche will be back for another 2 years. (re-signs w/ Atlanta Braves, 2 year $17.5 million w/ option for 3rd year.)
Doug Mientkiewicz (36) – Eye Chart had an acceptable 2008 campaign for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He even moved across the diamond and played some 3rd, which helped added value to his once one dimensional defensive skill set (that one dimension, he’s pretty good at). Doug would match up perfectly with a team that has a right handed hitting 1st baseman who lumbers around the bag defensively. There aren’t too many of those guys these days, the worse athletes on the field used to be first basemen, then left field. Now it’s either back-up catcher (see Fasano, Sal) or 13th bullpen guy (see recently traded Jones, Hunter). His season was cut short in ’09 due to a dislocated shoulder. He’s been on a new team every year since he left Boston in ’04. This will change; I think he stays in Dodger Blue. (re-signs w/ Los Angeles Dodgers, minor league deal.)
Kevin Millar (38) – I’m a big believer in clubhouse chemistry. Just like “clutch”, there isn’t any real way to measure it, just word of mouth and seeing how the team acts on TV, off the field. There is no denying that Kevmilar (for the Warwick Mall) is a guy that keeps things loose and never forgets that baseball is a game. That being said, even he couldn’t help the Blue Jays this past season. Even with John Gibbons, Carlos Tasca, and Shea Hillenbrand gone, the Jays still wind up in headlines for being a bad team to be a part of. The common denominator was J.P. Riccardi, and with him gone, I think the Blue Jays will start fresh and have a new chemistry this spring. Where does that leave Kevin Millar? Back where it all began, as a Florida Marlin. He makes perfect sense as the team’s token veteran and helps their young core through growing pains. (signs Minor League deal w/ Florida Marlins.)
Fernando Tatis (35) – Type B – Fernando Tatis has made a nice little comeback trail over the past few years. He was out of baseball for what seemed like forever, and then he popped up on Sports Center with a few walk offs out of nowhere. Overall, I think the Mets finally move on in a way to get younger as a whole. It’s tough to place bench guys since they move around so much, during the season included. I like him with the Cubbies because they’ve seemed to lack a non-“Me” guy the past few years. (signs w/ Chicago Cubs, 1 year guaranteed deal, $1 Million.)
Chad Tracy (30) – $7MM option with a $1MM buyout – this option was, indeed, declined. Chad Tracy got old real fast it seems. He lost his position to Conor Jackson, who lost his position to Eric Byrnes who lost his position to a whole slew of young guns. Co-Jacks was back to man first and Tracy became a tweener and bench guy. He’ll have a tough time finding a full time gig, but I like him with the Mets as a buy low type. They’re looking at a way to have power up and down their lineup rather than having it just in the 3-4-5 spots. He’ll fit the bill as pop off the bench, even though the Metropolitans new home is where bats (the Louisville type, not the rodent) go to die. (Signs 1 year deal, w/ incentives w/ the New York Mets.)
Dmitri Young (36) – I’ve been saying the past couple of seasons the Meat Hook should be reunited with his kid brother. The elder Young (oxymoron?) could help Delmon overcome the adversary that comes with being a ball player, since Dmitri has seen the worst of it. Whether Delmon himself gets moved this off-season, I see Dmitri signing where ever he winds up. Let’s say it’s ultimately Minnesota. (signs Minor League deal w/ Minnesota Twins.)
Second basemen
Ronnie Belliard (35) – Type B – Belliard was well liked my manager Joe Torre after the Dodgers acquired him for the Nats. That deal seemed to spark Ronnie as he wound up stealing playing time from Orlando Hudson. I like he and Blake DeWitt sharing time at the keystone this season, Dodgers re-up. (signs 1 year deal w/ Los Angeles Dodgers.)
Jamey Carroll (36) – Jamey Carroll has bounced around over the years but he’s pretty reliable. He’ll play all over the infield and give you some good ABs and take his fair share of walks. I like him with the Devil Rays. Their roamer, Ben Zobrist, may be permanently entrenched at second base now that they have shipped Iwamura to Pittsburgh. (signs 1 year deal w/ Tampa Bay Rays.){UPDATE: signed w/ Los Angeles Dodgers.}
Alex Cora (34) – After a tough year away from the Red Sox, I’m thinking Alex Cora wants to get away from Queens. Two thumb surgeries later, Cora finds himself as a free agent again. I like him in the South Side with his brother Joey. (signs 1 year deal w/ Chicago White Sox.){UPDATE: re-signed w/ New York Mets.}
Craig Counsell (39) – Craig Counsell will never leave the Brewers. That’s not hyperbole. He’s a lifer. (re-signs w/ Milwaukee Brewers.)
Mark DeRosa (35) – Type B – Mark DeRosa had a poor year offensively and played his usual poor defense at a few different positions. The Cards wouldn’t mind having him back but they also wouldn’t mind the compensatory draft picks they could get when they offer him arbitration and he signs with the New York Mets. Which is what may happen. (Signs w/ New York Mets, 2 years $15 Million.)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34) – Type B – I’m just as shocked as you are that Jerry Hairston wound up as a Type B in Elias Bureau’s free agent rankings. I find him overrated because he can play all over the diamond. He doesn’t play one exceptionally well, and his bat is pretty stale as seen by his .237 average with the Yanks and his .315 OBP overall in 2009. He’ll get a guaranteed deal somewhere and they’ll most likely regret it, just like the Reds did. Returns to the BWI area, only this time as Nat. (signs 1 year deal w/ Washington Nationals.)
Orlando Hudson (32) – Type A – One year later and both Orlando Hudson and Orland Cabrera find themselves as type A free agents again. Cabrera’s agent put a clause in his contract that said he can’t be offered arbitration, however Hudson’s did not. So he conceivably could go until January/February before signing for the second year in a row. I think the Mets will try to consummate their love for him by trying disparately to rid themselves of Luis Castillo’s contract. I like the Mariners as a surprise team. Jose Lopez isn’t a franchise second baseman, and the thought of Jack Wilson and Orland Hudson as double play partners makes me warm and fuzzy. (signs 1 year $6 Million deal w/ Seattle Mariners.)
Felipe Lopez (30) – Type B – After setting career highs in hits, doubles, average, and on base percentage, look for this Scott Boras client to get more than a one year offer this time around. He may have to settle for a 2 year deal, but he and his super agent will take it. Away from Cincinnati and Washington and this guy can play. He raked with the Cards last season after coming over from Washington and hit well in Arizona and in Milwaukee after they got him around the deadline. I like the Cubs here but I think I like the Twins a little better. They’ve had a cavalcade of middle infielders over the years, none to write home about. Lopez will, at the very least, add a small amount of cache to the middle. No offense Matt Macri and Matt Tolbert. (Signs 2 year deal w/ Minnesota Twins.)
Mark Loretta (38) – I haven’t heard anything to suggest this yet, but I think Loretta will be calling it quits this year. He’s had a long and productive career and he’s one of the nicest guys you’ll hear about. (retires.)
Placido Polanco (34) – Type A – There has already been some chatter about Placido moving over to third and playing for the Phillies. I think retaining Pedro Feliz would be a better idea than that. Polanco got off to a horrid start this past season and when you’re a guy whose batting average inflates your overall on base percentage, you have no room for error when you stop hitting. He plays an ok second, but who knows how he’d fare at the hot corner since he hasn’t played there since ’05, and even then it was part time. He’s a “Type A” free agent and it wouldn’t be the end of the world if the Tigers offer arbitration and he accepts. They believe youngster Scott Sizemore is ready for the Biggs, so someone as a safety net could be needed. I like him with the Diamondbacks. I’m not 100 percent on Ryan Roberts as an everyday player and Polanco would add a bit of veteran presence. (Signs 1 year deal w/ Arizona Diamondbacks.){UPDATE: signed 3 year deal w/ Philadelphia Phillies, as 3rd baseman.}
Juan Uribe (31) – Uribe was one of the best minor league signings last year. He should be retained as Edgar Renteria insurance. The Giants have a lot of work ahead of them. They’re in dire need of some offense, especially at the corners, Pablo Sandoval notwithstanding. (re-signs 1 year deal w/ San Francisco Giants.)
Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera (35) – Type A – Cabrera may not be a short stop for much longer. He’s always been a flashy guy, and flashy guys will have their fair share of errors but still have excellent years in the field. This year was no exception to his errors, but his range he posted some pretty awful defensive metrics. The Twins have already been linked to him sticking around, but this time at the keystone. I like that idea for no other reason than making Nick Punto a bench guy again, where he belongs. (Re-signs w/ Minnesota Twins. 1 year, $3.5 Million w/ incentives.)
Bobby Crosby (30) – Hopefully a change of scenery will get this former ROY back on track. The A’s have no intentions of bringing him back, but I can picture him staying in the Bay Area. He could be the perfect replacement for Juan Uribe if he prices himself out of San Francisco. Crosby may not have liked the idea of not starting last spring training, but it helped his versatility as he played all over the diamond. Guys who are oft injured as starters tend to stick around awhile when they start their second careers as reserves. (signs 1 year deal w/ San Francisco Giants.){UPDATE: signed w/ Pittsburgh Pirates.}
Adam Everett (33) – There is no denying Adam Everett’s talent with the leather. Too bad he can’t bring it with him to the plate. But, he’s one of those guys who can be carried as a starter on high output offensive teams because he is so good in the field. I like him with the Red Sox if they can’t work something out with Alex Gonzalez. He’s been linked to the Nationals, but for now I think defense is the least of their problems. Defensive wins championships, sure. But that starting rotation sure as heck doesn’t. I digress. I like him with the Astros and Blue Jays. Both teams are looking for payroll flexibility and both have free agent incumbent short stops that may be priced out of staying put. I like him returning to Houston. (signs 1 year deal w/ Houston Astros.){UPDATE: re-signed w/ Detroit Tigers.}
Alex Gonzalez (32) – $6MM mutual option with a $500K buyout – The option was bought out and I can see a deal for Gonzo similar to the one Jack Wilson received from the Mariners. This is a pretty strong free agent class of short stops when it comes to all glove no bat guys. $8 or $9 million spread over 2 years wouldn’t inhibit a team like the Red Sox. They may stick Jed Lowrie in AAA for a full season to get his wrist strength and confidence squared away, so a short term fix is needed. He stays put. (re-signs w/ Boston Red Sox, 2 years $9.5 Million.) {UPDATE: Signed w/ Toronto Blue Jays.}
Khalil Greene (30) – 2009 was a lost season for the Spicoli look alike. His departure from San Diego didn’t go quite as planned. The Cards got a taste of their own medicine after their castoff didn’t work very well with the Padres in 2008, Jim Edmonds; the vice-versa effect went just as well. I like him with the Orioles to fill their 3rd base vacancy. They’ve already been linked to Pedro Feliz, so they seem prepared to go with an all or nothing approach at the plate from their 3rd baseman. Greene will most likely be cheaper than Feliz. Greene is only a couple years removed from 44 doubles and 27 jacks. Not too shabby from a guy who played half his games at PetCo. (signs 1 year deal w/ Baltimore Orioles.)
John McDonald (35) – Yet another extremely talented defender available on the open market. The knock on Johnny Mac is he’s the only one of these guys that’s never been an everyday guy. He’s best used as an infield roamer, spelling guys as a late inning replacement. I don’t see him getting more than a minor league deal, so he fits better in Washington than Adam Everett. He could help mentor Ian Desmond, a la Omar Vizquel with Elvis Andrus this past season. (Signs minor league deal w/ Washington Nationals.){UPDATE: Re-signed w/ Toronto Blue Jays.}
Marco Scutaro (34) – Type A – I think Scutaro’s age scares as many teams as his Type A status does. He was one of the few moves by J.P. Riccardi that I applauded. He may price himself out of Toronto if he declines the arbitration that they (hopefully) offer. The Red Sox will take a look, for sure, since he’s the guy they thought Julio Lugo would be. I can see the Cardinals as well. Pushing Skip Shumaker to LF if they can’t re-sign Holliday, this could lead to a rotation at second with Julio Lugo and Brendan Ryan, leaving short stop open. A few things would have to fall into place, yes, but it’s feasible. I think the Red Sox finally consummate their lust, which I hope goes better than their last short stop love fest that resulted in Julio Lugo. (Signs 2 year $16 million deal w/ $9 million option for 2012 w/ Boston Red Sox.){UPDATE: signed 2 year, $10 million deal w/ Boston Red Sox.}
Miguel Tejada (36) – Type A – Another shortstop turned 3rd baseman for next season is my guess here, too. Staying put in Houston and heading to Philly are my two favorites. Houston has no viable replacement at 3rd or short. Tommy Manzella does nothing for me. And Kaz Matsui is Kaz Matsui, so their whole infield, sans Lance Berkman, is in need of an upgrade. They see the writing on the wall and Tejada stays put… sort of, shifts to 3rd. (Signs 2 year, $12 Million deal w/ Houston Astros.)
Omar Vizquel (43) – No matter who Philly signs or trades for to play 3rd, I like Vizquel heading there to spell everyone all around the infield grass. He wants a higher profile team than the Rangers, and he’ll get just that with the Phillies. Let’s hope he doesn’t write another book and throw Brad Lidge under the bus. (signs 1 year $1 Million deal w/ Philadelphia Phillies.) {UPDATE: signed w/ Chicago White Sox.}
Third basemen
Adrian Beltre (31) – Type B – There are a few teams that could use Beltre as their third baseman. He could conceivably stay put in Seattle if they’re not sold on Tuiasasopo playing every day at the Major League level. The Twins could replace another Scott Boras client in Joe Crede with him. The Orioles could spend some cash and have him play alongside another gloveman in Cesar Izturis. Philadelphia, Houston, San Francisco, and even the White Sox could also use a third baseman. It never ceases to amaze me when Scott Boras’ clients come up for free agency the amount of teams in need for a that particular position. He’s no dummy. I like the Giants here. Sliding Pablo Sandoval to first alone would help out their defense. Beltre on the left side would help Renteria a tad, too. He may not be the impact bat they need, but it’s a start. (Signs 3 year $40 Million deal w/ San Francisco Giants.)
Aaron Boone (37) – Boone made a quick recovery from open heart surgery this past season and actually got into a few games down the stretch. I think he’ll have minimal interest which will help sway his decision to retirement. (retires.)
Joe Crede (32) – With Crede’s balky back he has had a tough time staying on the field the past few years. His all or nothing approach at the plate is similar to Pedro Feliz, but at least Feliz is durable, however both their styles play better in the NL. Crede could be an interesting gamble for the Cards if they don’t think David Freese is ready or capable. Same for the Athletics with their ex-Cardinal prospect, Brett Wallace. I’m liking the Cardinals ultimately on this one. (Signs 1 year, $1.75 Million deal w/incentives w/ St. Louis Cardinals.)
Pedro Feliz (35) – $5MM club option with a $500K buyout – Pedro Feliz is running out of teams in need of a starting third baseman, at least on my list. The Orioles could go his route if they don’t pursue Khalil Greene. As could the Twins. I like the Twins the most here, especially if he falls in their lap come end of January, early February and they can get him on a real short money deal. Could the Twins open their new stadium without Nick Punto manning a position? Say it ain’t so?! (Signs 1 year, $3 Million deal w/ Minnesota Twins.)
Chone Figgins (32) – Type B – It’s hard to picture Chone Figgins wearing anything else other than Halo red. I think the Angels will try harder to sign Figgins than they will John Lackey. The team as a whole seemed to embrace Bobby Abreu’s way of thinking in the batter’s box this past season, as everyone started to take pitches more than we are accustomed to see out of the Angels. Figgins has always been the exception to their swing to contact philosophy, but this past year he had over 100 walks. That’s no short feat, especially out of a leadoff hitter. I like him staying put. (Re-signs, 4 year $45 Million deal, w/ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.){UPDATE: signed w/ Seattle Mariners.}
Troy Glaus (33) – Type B – Troy Glaus could be the low-risk-high-reward guy that Billy Beane tends to sneak out every off season. It worked well with Frank Thomas the first time, but Thomas the second time and Jason Giambi and Nomar didn’t work out so well. Signing Glaus could give the A’s some flexibility. Daric Barton could be given a short leash with the first base job, with Jack Cust in LF and Glaus at DH. If Barton struggles, Glaus could shift to 1B and Cust to DH. If Glaus struggles, then off to the glue factory. (signs 1 year $500K deal w/ incentives w/ Oakland Athletics.)
Adam Kennedy (34) – Adam Kennedy didn’t like playing in Durham too much. He asked for a trade and the Rays obliged, sending him to Oakland for a lifelong minor leaguer. Kennedy’s contract was purchased and he played over his capabilities for much of the season. His defense isn’t what it used to be at 2B and he was only a little better when shifted over to 3rd. There is mutual interest in Kennedy staying put. It wouldn’t be the worst idea, as long as he’s not the everyday guy at the keystone or at the hot corner; the A’s could do worse. (re-signs for 1 year $1.675 Million w/ the Oakland Athletics.)
Melvin Mora (38) – Type B – Melvin Mora’s power has all but evaporated. He’s still pretty decent on the field, but his approach at the plate leaves little to be desired if he can’t get around on balls he once could. I’ll be happy for the Orioles if they move on. They’ve hinted already that they will, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Mora pretty much asked for an extension a few years back and they simply caved in and gave it to him. So it seemed from afar anyway. I’d like them to show a little imagination for once. As far as Mora goes? He’s a better option everyday than Geoff Blum, so if the Astros can’t get Tejada to come back, I like him in Houston. Better yet, I like him as the token veteran in Florida. Anyone is an improvement over Jorge Cantu at the hot corner. If he’s traded or non-tendered, I like Mora in Miami on the cheap. (signs 1 year $2 Million deal w/ Florida Marlins.)
Left fielders
Garret Anderson (38) – Type B – Garret Anderson’s 2009 campaign went about as well as I expected it would. He’s had a long career. He saw his first Major League pitch in 1994 and went through three different name changes with the Angels. He’s coming off a career worst batting average and an equally as bad defensive season. General Managers should be scared off but I’m sure someone somewhere will give him a shot just because of who he is and what he used to be able to do. I’m going with retires on this one. (Retires.)
Jason Bay (31) – Type A – Jason Bay proved he can handle it in the AL East with his first full season with the Red Sox. He set career highs in homers and RBIs and he did that at a time that will be extremely beneficial to him, as he is entering free agency for the first time in his career. The Giants, Mariners, Mets, and Red Sox seem to be the most likely suitors for Bay. His defensive stats can leave a little to be desired, but he’s a left fielder, it’s almost expected these days. He has a decent arm and didn’t have a single error this past year; he just doesn’t get to as many balls as a Matt Holliday or Carl Crawford. He’ll get a decent sized contract, as all the teams pining for him have the clout. Ultimately, I think he stays in Boston. (Re-signs for 5 years $80 Million w/ Boston Red Sox.) Endy Chavez (32) – If Endy Chavez didn’t get hurt this past season, the Mariners would have posted the best defensive metrics as an outfield in the history of baseball. An outfield from left-to-right with Chavez, Gutierrez, and Ichiro would see very few balls drop in for hits. Unfortunately for the M’s, Chavez did get hurt and used a semi-rotation of Ryan Langerhans, Bill Hall, and Michael Saunders with a small sprinkle of Ken Griffey, Jr. in the left field pastures. Saunders has the highest up side of the bunch and I’d like to see him given a shot at the everyday gig. Chavez could be a nice compliment/mentor to Saunders, but given they’re both lefties at the plate, it wouldn’t make too much sense. I like Chavez with the Brew Crew. Their outfield corners aren’t the most graceful of fielders so Chavez as a spot starter and late inning replacement makes some sense. Bench coach Willie Randolph has seen Chavez’s defense first hand, and when paired with the newly acquired Carlos Gomez, the Brewers could replace the Mariners as the best fielding outfield. (Signs 1 year $1.25 Million dollar deal w/ Milwaukee Brewers.)
Johnny Damon (36) – Type A – It’ll be interesting to see what the Yankees do this off-season in regards to their outfield. The starters are all below average defensively and Brett Gardner would disappoint at the plate if he was given 500+ at-bats. Damon is still productive entering his late 30’s but his defensive in Left isn’t quite good. Being a full time DH would preserve his health but the Yankees could potentially lose millions in revenue if they let Matsui walk. I think the Yanks keep Matsui as their DH, go elsewhere for their Left Fielder. I like Damon with the Mets on an Andruw Jones-esque deal. (Signs w/ New York Mets, 2 years, $30 Million.)
Matt Holliday (30) – Type A – Matt Holliday will be the prize of this year’s free agent class. He’ll have almost all the big market teams checking in on him and it could get down to a bidding war, similar to last year’s Mark Teixeira proceedings. The Giants make the most sense, since they’re in dire need of some offense, but they won’t pony up the dough. I can’t see the Mariners paying $18+ million annually for both corner outfield spots and both the Red Sox and Yankees are seeing Holliday as more of a plan B if they can’t come to agreements with their incumbent left fielders. I like the Cardinals keeping him. They pretty much have to if they want to keep Albert when his contract is up. (Re-signs for 5 years, $85 Million w/ St. Louis Cardinals.)
Greg Norton (37) – Norton was used almost exclusively as a pinch hitter in 2009. It’s sort of a shame because Norton has been pretty useful over the years when he’s mixed in and out of the line ups, rather than being the first guy to hit for the pitcher. He can play the corners, none of the exceptionally well, but he is a rather versatile guy. He’d be a good caddy for a team that is predominantly left handed, as he is lefty killer. I like him with the Pirates, as they could use some veteran presence off the bench. (Signs minor league deal w/ Pittsburgh Pirates.)
Gary Sheffield (41) – Sheff showed everyone he wasn’t quite done when the Mets picked up for the league minimum after the Tigers disposed of him. He definitely wore out his welcome towards the tail end of the season when he began to talk to the media about not being wanted. I like him returning to either the Braves or the Marlins as a part time lefty masher. Bobby Cox and Chipper Jones would out the kybosh on any antics real fast so they may be a better fit. They already have Matt Diaz to fit a similar role, but I like him as a strict platoon guy for their Left Field vacancy, he’d match up well with a guy like Chris Dickerson from Cincinnati or Freddy Lewis from San Fran. The Marlins could be in need of a part time outfielder. They have young Chris Cohglan in LF and Cody Ross in either center or right, depending on what they do with Cameron Maybin and/or Mike Stanton when the season begins. Jeremy Hermida’s departure leaves some at-bats to be had from the RF position as well. If Ross is moved then bringing in Sheffield would be easier to swallow as far as salary goes. He’s entertaining so I’d hate to see him go un-signed. I’m rooting for the Marlins here. (Signs 1 year $2.25 Million dollar deal w/ Florida Marlins.)
Center fielders
Rick Ankiel (30) – Unless Ankiel signs with a second division ball club, I don’t see him as a starter next year. His story is great, a pitcher-turned-outfielder with success. Last year was an injury riddled season. Josh Hamilton can relate, as I think both of their bodies caught up to them. From being out of baseball for Hamilton and pitching and using different muscles for Ankiel, caused a slight break down after both played for full seasons the year before. Ankiel’s bat doesn’t play so well in a part time role since he’s not a big contact guy but his glove does. He can hold his own in center as a fill in or part timer, but he’s better off in the corners as a starter. He has been linked to the Pirates and Red Sox already, amongst a couple other teams. I don’t see the fit with the Red Sox at all, especially with the newly acquired Jeremy Hermida. Pirates don’t make too much sense either, unless they can convince Scott Boras to do a one year deal to help build his value for the 2010 outfield free agent class, which won’t include Jason Bay and Matt Holiday. I’m leaning towards the Giants on this one. They (Brian Sabean) have already indicated they won’t be going after the big names and they could use more pop from their corners. (Signs 2 year $10 Million deal w/ San Francisco Giants.)
Marlon Byrd (32) – Type B – This has the potential to be Gary Matthews, Jr. all over again. Matthews parlayed a decent full season showing into a 5 year $55 million contract with the Angels at a similar point in his career. Byrd is a part time player who’s gotten better with age. The Rangers want him back, he wants to be back, but he’s entering free agency in hopes of landing a nice deal and everyday playing time. He’s not an everyday player. He fits well with the Rangers because two of their starting outfielders are left-handed, BUT, he owned a reverse split last year and owned righties more than lefties. He’s similar to Ankiel in the fact that he’s better off at the corners, but could spell a starting center fielder for a short period of time and not kill the team. Ultimately, I like the Rangers keeping him. He’ll probably sign late in the off-season for a fair amount to a deal similar to Juan Rivera’s. Our economic down time will prevent another Gary Matthews situation, not a GM learning from past mistakes. (Re-signs for 3 years, $20 million.)
Mike Cameron (37) – Type B – The Yankees were linked to Cameron last off-season in some Melky Cabrera trade rumors. This year, he’s a free agent and the Brew Crew obtained someone better than Cabrera to man Cameron’s former pasture. Cameron would be a nice addition to the Yanks, since he’s has more offense and defense than Cabrera and would push him to a 4th outfielder role, which he’s better suited. He could be had for a short term deal, which wouldn’t inhibit top prospect Austin Jackson from reaching the Bigs. He’s already played in New York with the cross town club, so the media environment wouldn’t be a shock. (Signs 1 year $8 Million deal w/ option w/ New York Yankees.){UPDATE: signed w/ Boston Red Sox.}
Coco Crisp (30) – $8MM club option with a $500K buyout – The option was bought out and I can picture a similar deal to what Jack Wilson got with the Mariners. Only a little bit more money than what the option was worth, but spread out over a couple of years. His defense is impeccable so that alone would make the deal worthwhile. Stays put. (Re-signs for 2 years $10 Million w/ Kansas City Royals.)
Darin Erstad (36) – Since leaving the Angels, Erstad spent one year with the White Sox and the past 2 season with the Astros. His value lies almost completely in his defense, both at 1st base and in the outfield. He can play all three spots, left and center he seems to play the best. His .194 batting average is kind of hard to swallow, but he only had 134 at-bats. I like him returning to Chicago, only this time as a Cub. Their outfield defense is putrid, so Erstad would be a welcome addition to their bench. Plus, Sweet Lou loves him some left handed swinging veterans. (Signs 1 year $1 Million deal w/ Chicago Cubs.)
Reed Johnson (33) – Reed Johnson, as always, tuned lefties in 2009. The only problem was he only got to see them 68 times. He’s the quintessential 4th outfielder since he can play all three positions and won’t embarrass himself while he’s out there. He’s the perfect caddy for Curtis Granderson or even Grady Siezmore. I like him better with the Indians since both Siezmore and Choo are left handed. He could also fill-in in left if Matt LaPorta isn’t ready by Spring Training. (Signs 1 year $1.5 Million deal w/ Cleveland Indians.)
Andruw Jones (33) – Jones is more of a DH at this point in his career. He did get a few innings at the corner spots with the Rangers and didn’t fare too bad. He also auditioned at first and did well there in a small sample size. I think Dayton Moore pulls his Braves card one more time and invites Andruw to camp with the Royals. They don’t have a true DH and if they’re committed to Billy Butler as their first baseman, they should leave him there. Jones had 45 walks in 331 plate appearances so his patience would be a nice addition to the Royals line up. If it’s only a minor league deal, then I like it. If Moore spends a lot of cash bringing him in, I don’t. Royals it is. (Signs 1 year minor league deal w/ Kansas City Royals.){UPDATE: signed w/ Chicago White Sox.}
Scott Podsednik (34) – Scott Podsednik was let go by the Rockies and picked up by Chicago’s South Side to replace DeWayne Wise as their leadoff man, which by the way, had disaster written all over it from the get-go. In any event, Pods was a God-send to the White Sox as he filled-in in center and in left when Carlos Quentin was down. He ended up having a similar year in Chicago as he did when he first arrived there in ’05 after coming over for Carlos Lee. It makes sense for them to hold on to him as they may be getting thin in the outfield with Jermaine Dye also hitting free agency. Brian Anderson and fellow centerfield hopeful Jerry Owens were traded away during the season, leaving only Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios as the incumbents. With a lack of other suitors, I think Pods winds back in the Windy City one a one year guaranteed deal with a vesting option for a second. (Re-signs for 1 year $3.5 Million + option w/ Chicago White Sox.)
Right fielders
Jermaine Dye (36) – $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout – Type A – A “Type A” guy who most likely won’t be offered arbitration because it would cost the White Sox a lot of cash if he accepted, Dye could extend his career a few years if he does what Bobby Abreu should do, which is swallow his pride and move to left field. A move to the NL wouldn’t hurt things either. Dye has put up back to back good seasons after his disastrous 2007 campaign. He could work in Arlington, too, if their lust to re-acquire Milton Bradley falls through. I like him as a one year stop gap in Queens. Omar Minaya loves 30-somethings and Dye fits the bill. You could do worse with an outfield from left-to-right of Dye, Beltran, and Francoeur. As long as they have good bench bats, that’s a decent, but 2/3rds old, outfield. (Signs 1 year, $6.5 Million deal w/ New York Mets.)
Brian Giles (39) – Type B – Giles says he still wants to play, but I’m running out of teams who need an almost 40 year old who isn’t all that good in the outfield anymore and is coming off an injury plagued season which was his worst statistics in his 15 year career. If he’s 100% healthy, then a few teams could take a flyer, but not at a guaranteed price. I do like a Bruce Bochy reunion in San Fran. He could be used strictly as a LH bench bat with occasional outfield appearance. They could certainly use his OBP potential. I also like a move to the AL where he helps some young guys and platoons with another veteran. I like him in Tampa as this season’s Gabe Gross role, which will be diminished when Matt Joyce is deemed ready. (signs minor league deal w/ Tampa Bay Rays)
Vladimir Guerrero (35) – Type A – Guerrero could be another Type-A status guy that winds up only with a one year deal, possibly incentive based. The Elias Bureau rankings are a flawed system but it’s the only way for a team to recoup some value from a departing free agent. Bad Vlad is more of a DH these days and still carries the uncanny ability to swing and hit pretty much anything around the plate. His OBP is usually pretty respectable, but he finished 2009 with a career low .334. He only appeared in 100 games so a full seasons worth of ABs could change that for 2010. He’s been linked to Texas and I think that could be a mutual fit. Vlad could replace Hank Blalock as the primary DH but could also spot start in left, his days as a right fielder should be done. (Signs 1 year $6 Million deal w/ Texas Rangers.)
Austin Kearns (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout – Kearns should have an interesting time looking for work. His 2009 season was abysmal and I’m sure the Nats were happy to pay him his $1 million buyout. He’s an excellent defender in right, but he hasn’t had a full season in a few years. I like him north of the border with Toronto. He could potentially be their full time right fielder while sticking Snyder in left to flank Wells on the other side. It would have to be short money, but I like the chances of it because Kearns could reestablish some value for next off season. (Signs 1 year, $1 Million deal {+ incentives} w/ Toronto Blue Jays.)
Xavier Nady (31) – Type B – Another guy who fits Brian Sabean’s bill of “second tier” free agents. Nothing about Nady’s offensive game excites me. If the Braves decide to hold on to Ryan Church, then a Church/Nady platoon could make some sense. Both are stretched as every day guys because of their splits. However, the Braves have Matt Diaz on their roster who can handle lefties to spell Church as I mentioned in Gary Sheffield’s piece. He’s already been linked in San Francisco; I hope for their sake, they don’t go through with it. I’m assuming Nady will also need a one year deal to reestablish some value for next year. I’d prefer them to trade for Nick Swisher and the Yankees to pursue Nady. It’d make just as much sense for the Giants to bring back Randy Winn for one more year. Winn at the very least plays much better defense in RF than Nady does. Who am I kidding? Sabean telegraphs his free agent signings every off season. (Signs 1 year, $5.5 Million deal w/ San Francisco Giants.)
Randy Winn (36) – Type B – I like Winn in Atlanta as this year’s Garret Anderson. Winn is less inept in the field than Anderson and would platoon well with Matt Diaz. Their outfield situation should be an interesting one to watch, I’m not 100% certain they’ll tender Ryan Church a contract come December. (Signs 1 year $3.5 Million deal w/ Atlanta Braves.)
Designated hitters
Jason Giambi (39) – Giambi’s return to Oakland did not go as hoped. I’m sure he wishes he could have had the new Yankee Stadium as his home park in lieu of the Coliseum, where fly balls go to die. He was scooped up for the stretch run by Colorado. Even though he was used sparingly, he was productive with the Rox. It’ll be interesting to see if he remains in the NL or if an AL club desperate for some power takes a flyer on him. The Rockies have hinted at moving on, but I think he stays in the NL West. He likes the night life. He loves to boogie. A return with manager Joe Torre, this time in La-La land as their premier bench bat. (Signs 1 year $1 Million deal w/ Los Angeles Dodgers.)
Hideki Matsui (36) – Type B – At the very beginning of the off-season I liked Matsui with the Mariners. Then they re-upped with Ken Griffey, Jr. and I still liked Matsui with the Mariners. Right now, I’m not so sure. I think the Mariners are content with their DH/LF situation and will be spending more time and money on their infield corners. I think he remains in New York with Johnny Damon. This is boring. We’ve seen both of them wearing pin stripes for awhile now so it’d be nice to see them mix it up. But they did just win a World Series with Matsui as their DH and Damon as their left fielder. The loss of Matsui would be cost them millions in revenue from overseas marketing and stateside marketing alike. I like the Yankees keeping him, but only for either 2 years or maybe even 1 with a vesting option. Lately, it seems the recipe for success is having a fair amount of aging veterans playing on the last year of their contract. Perhaps Cashman knows this, too, and tries to bottle it. (Re-Signs for 2 years, $24 Million w/ New York Yankees.)
Matt Stairs (42) – Matt Stairs is a fun guy to watch play the game. He’s going to be 42 but he still swings the same way as when he was 22. These days he’s most likely relegated to the NL to be a team’s primary bench bat. You don’t see too many Olmedo Seanz’s any more, the reason being team’s value defense and versatility more than pinch hitting. The Phillies have stated they would welcome him back, but it would have to be on a minor league deal. Which I think will happen. Either Phillies or retirement. (Re-signs, minor league deal w/ Philadelphia Phillies.)
Mike Sweeney (36) – I was surprised when Seattle signed Mike Sweeney last year. I wasn’t so much that they signed him; I was more surprised that anyone signed him. The Mariners DH spot was a rather unproductive one. The two-headed monster of Junior and Mike Sweeney didn’t strike fear in anyone in the AL West. Sweeney has had pretty much the exact same season from 2006 through 2009. I like him with the Angels as he continues his tour of the AL West. He’s always been an Angel’s type of guy. Not a real power threat, but can groove one if necessary, not much of a patient guy but at the same time is a decent contact maker and still works accounts. Most of his homeruns came off lefties, but his OPS was better against righties, so his DH platoon partner will have to split time based on match ups. (Signs 1 year, $500,000 deal w/ incentives w/ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.)
Jim Thome (39) – And here he is. A Thome/Sweeney DH is just as old as the Griffey/Sweeney DH of last season, but this one seems to be more productive. The idea is the same, keeping both off the field will keep them fresh and healthy so going every other day, or lefty-righty, or day-night could work. The Angels don’t look like they’re going to retain Vlad and Thome has spent most of his recent career in the AL, unlike Griffey who had many years in between stints. (Signs 1 year, $4.5 Million deal w/ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.)
Starting pitchers
Erik Bedard (31) – Type B – Just like the aforementioned platoon of two old guys to keep them fresh, Bedard’s suitor should also consider signing Dan Haren. Between the two a team could potentially get 34 starts and 210 innings of Ace-like pitching. Both could be top 10 pitchers every year if they could just stay on the rubber. The Mariners got fleeced in the Bedard deal so they’ll try to keep him just to save face. The Red Sox and Yankees could also be in on him, for no more than the fact that they don’t want their offense to face him. Very rarely do you see a team sign 2 reclamation projects in the same season, let alone at the same position in the same season. I like the Mariners here. For both guys. (Signs 1 year, $3.5 Million deal w/ to $10 million w/ Seattle Mariners.)
Aroldis Chapman (22) – I don’t know too much about Chapman just that he’s left handed and throws 100. Where ever he signs, he won’t be a factor in 2010. He’s still raw from most scouting reports, so a full year in the minors is most likely in the cards. The White Sox, Red Sox, and Yankees will be the main suitors. All three have had recent success signing Cuban defectors. I like the Yankees here. The Red Sox have Junichi Tazawa as their young international gun. (Signs 4 year, $35 Million contract w/ New York Yankees.)
Bartolo Colon (37) – Colon hasn’t had a fill season since 2005. To think he’ll finally do it again in his 37-year old season would be foolish. Not to say he won’t be productive. The past two season with both colored Sox, he’s pitched pretty well but in very small doses. Small market teams should do their due diligence on him. I like him in Baltimore because they have a lack of sure fire starters. He could step, in for either the first half or second half, and help fill the void every 5th day. (Signs 1 year $1 Million deal w/ incentives w/ Baltimore Orioles.)
Jose Contreras (38) – Contreras pitched well enough for the Rockies done the stretch. His BABIP was pretty unsustainably high, so if he does stay stateside, his ERA should drop as well. He’s already been linked to professional baseball in Japan, so much so that he is looking for a high school that will take part in a foreign exchange program with his son. If no Japan, I like him with the Dodgers. (Signs 1 year deal w/ Yokohoma Bay Stars.)
Doug Davis (34) – Type B – Doug Davis, is what he is, a lefty who makes his starts and throws a lot of pitches. He’ll walk his fair share of guys but he’ll also throw his 200ish innings. He’s been linked to the Brewers already, as they try to fill each of their rotation spots behind Yovanni Gallardo with prototypical number 5 guys. If he was a free agent a few years ago he could have commanded the same contract Gil Meche received. He’ll be lucky to get 2 guaranteed years this off-season. I think he winds back in Milwaukee. Boring. (Signs 1 year $5.5 Million deal + option for 2011 w/ Milwaukee Brewers.)
Justin Duchscherer (32) – Type B – The Duke is in the same position as Rich Harden and Erik Bedard. He’ll more than likely have to settle for a 1 year deal with a heavy dose of incentives, but low base salary. I like the Braves here because they have a bevy of starting pitchers, so they could afford to give him some time if he’s not right by the start of the season. (Signs 1 year $2 million deal w/ incentives w/ Atlanta Braves.)
Jon Garland (30) – $10MM mutual option with $2.5MM or $1MM buyout – Type B – Last year I thought for sure Jon Garland would have landed more than a 1 year + option deal. As crazy as this sounds, but I’d rather have Jon Garland on my team than A.J. Burnett. Burnett’s stuff is mind boggling, don’t get me wrong, but Burnett’s injury history is extensive, so much so that dedicating 5 years and multi-million dollars is a huge risk. Garland, on the other hand, is the right handed version of Doug Davis, but 4 years younger. His move to the NL didn’t drastically change his peripheral stats as I thought it would, but he was still useful for the Dodgers after the mid-season trade. He makes sense for the Twins, Blue Jays, and Orioles, just for the fact that they need someone to guarantee to toe the rubber every 5th day. Garland would be a nice complimentary piece to any of these teams and as long as he isn’t the only pitcher acquired, I’m talking to you Baltimore, than the signing should work. So I like him with Baltimore, only if they get Lackey as well. If not, then it will be a very “Baltimore” thing to do, spend money just to spend money. (Signs 2 year w/ vesting option for 2012, for $25 million w/ Baltimore Orioles.)
Rich Harden (28) – Type B – Like I had stated in the Bedard post, Harden would, platoon, so to speak, with Bedard very well. I like Seattle for both, Harden with a slightly higher guaranteed rate since he pitched more in 2009. (Signs 1 year $5.5 million w/ incentives to $10 million w/ Seattle Mariners.){UPDATE: signs 1 year deal w/ Texas Rangers.}
Livan Hernandez (35) – Turn the key and watch Livan throw. He’s an older, more hittable version of Jon Garland. But, I’ll reiterate that going for 30+ starts is very useful, especially with a young starting core. He makes sense returning to Florida were he could help mentor the likes of Chris Volstad, Josh Johnson, and Anibal Sanchez, amongst others of course. If he’s still available late into the off season, he could be a nice bargain for Florida. (Signs 1 year $1.25 million deal w/ incentives to $3 million w/ Florida Marlins.)
Randy Johnson (46) – Type B – He got his 300th win so now it’s not imperative for a return. Reuniting with Griffey in Seattle would make for some nice reminiscing but other than that, I don’t see too many fits. He said he’s taking his time with his decision so I wouldn’t rule out a Roger Clemens type of return to a contender after the break. Which what I believe will happen with the Giants, if they’re still in it. (Signs 1 years, prorated, for $5 million w/ San Francisco Giants.)
John Lackey (31) – Type A – There are two teams that really need Lackey. The remaining 30 would welcome him with welcome arms; however the Orioles and the Mets need him the most. The Mets could use Lackey as their Burnett to their Sabathia, Johan Santana. The Orioles, however, need someone to anchor their staff. Lackey is one of the fiercest competitors, so being in Oriole orange could be frustrating for the next season or two, before they’re considered to be contenders. That being said, this could be their only shot to help lure other free agents, since they missed out last year with Mark Teixeira. Orioles will be more apt to give him Burnett money, the Mets more apt to give him Derek Lowe money. I’d like to see Baltimore competitive, and that’s coming from a Red Sox fan. I’m rooting for the birds. (Signs 5 year $77 million deal w/ Baltimore Orioles.){UPDATE: Signed w/ Boston Red Sox.}
Braden Looper (35) – Type B – Looper had a option that the Brewers declined, but I think they bring him back on a similar deal for another year. His ERA was a tad bit gross, but he’s another guy that falls into the toe-the-rubber-when-you-need-him-to category. The Brewers may have a few too many of those guys when it’s all said and done however. Looper should go back to St. Louis and see if Dave Duncan and re-right the ship. (Signs 1 year $3 million deal w/ St. Louis Cardinals.)
Rodrigo Lopez (34) – Rodrigo Lopez seems to finally be over his Tommy John surgery from a couple of years ago. He had a couple of good starts for the Phillies and then a couple of shaky ones as well and was booted from the rotation when Pedro arrived. He could be had on another minor league contract with a spring training invite and will probably end up on a team where he’s just holding a seat until someone young is ready after some seasoning in the minors. I like him returning to the Baltimore area, this team in Da Capital. (signs minor league contract w/ Washington Nationals.)
Noah Lowry (29) – I like Lowry as this year’s Kevin Correia. The Giants released a month or so earlier than I figured they would, I assumed he’d be non-tendered in December. The cost conscience Padres could scoop him up on the cheap and throw him out there just like they did last year with Correia. (signs minor league deal w/ San Diego Padres.)
Jason Marquis (31) – Type B – Marquis hits free agency for the second time in 4 years. He just completed a 3 year deal the Cubs gave him after he was one season removed from an ERA near 6.00. He’s coming off one of his best seasons and he’s still only 31. The Mets could certainly use his durability and after last season’s injury filled campaign, I think they over pay for it. (Signs 3 year $29 million deal w/ New York Mets.)
Vicente Padilla (32) – Type B – Padilla redeemed himself after the Dodgers picked him up off the scrap heap. A move back to the NL was long overdue, as he looked like an entirely different pitcher when he was wearing Dodger Blue. I think Colletti and Co. try him for a full season rather than over paying for 2 months worth of work. (signs 1 year $5 million w/ Los Angeles Dodgers.)
Carl Pavano (34) – Type B – If I had a choice between Carl Pavano and Jarrod Washburn, I’d go with Pavano. This is what the Twins should do, since they’ve already been linked to both guys. Pavano proved last year he can be healthy, but with his past history of frequent DL miles, he can be had for less money and less years than the older Jarrod Washburn. If the Twins can do Pavano for 1 year at $3-5 million, then they should sign him soon before they lose him to an NL club. (signs 1 year $3.5 million deal w/ Minnesota Twins.){UDATE: accepted arbitration/re-signed w/ Minnesota Twins.}
Brad Penny (32) – Padilla, Pavano, and Penny all spent 2009 with 2 separate teams. Only Pavano was traded, the other 2 switched leagues and garnered better results than their first half. Penny should re-sign with the Giants or sign with the Padres just so he can stick it the Dodgers more often. The Padres would only make sense if it was on the uber cheap, but PetCo Park would be a pretty forgiving home ball park for Penny. I like the Giants giving him a similar deal that the Dodgers should give Padilla. (signs 1 year $4.5 million deal + incentives w/ San Francisco Giants.){UPDATE: signed w/ St. Louis Cardinals.}
Andy Pettitte (38) – Type B – Same ole story here. Pettitte waits as long as possible to make an decision to come back and then signs with the Yankees after making that decision. The Yanks should sign another veteran as well, so Phil Hughes and Joba can stay in the bullpen and help sure up the road to Mo. (re-signs for 1 year $8 million w/ New York Yankees.){Re-signed w/ New York Yankees.}
Joel Pineiro (31) – Type B – Pineiro’s career resurrection was in St. Louis so I think he should stay with Dave Duncan. He’ll have a few teams that will help drive up the cost, but ultimately I think he stays put. (re-signs for 3 years $29 million w/ St. Louis Cardinals.)
Mark Prior (28) – There’s always a buzz over where Mark Prior will sign and he always disappoints because he never makes it out of his rehab assignments. The past 2 seasons he’s been in the Padres organization but has zilch to show for it. He, Mark Mulder, and Shawn Hill should fire their trainers, walk away from the game for a year and get healthy. Worked for Troy Percival. (re-signs on minor league deal w/ San Diego Padres.)
Jason Schmidt (37) – Everyone but the Dodgers saw his recent contract as a mistake. For all the flack the Giants get for Barry Zito’s albatross, Zito at least has won a hand full of games over the past 3 seasons. I think it’s a foregone conclusion Schmidt hangs ‘em up. He was as nasty as they get in his prime. (Retires.)
Ben Sheets (31) – Sheets had to sit out the whole 2009 season with his latest arm injury. Sheets’ delivery is almost all in his arm, so forearm and elbow troubles have been in the cards for awhile. I like him with Texas since Mike Maddux is there and there has been rumors of him signing there since last off-season. (signs 1 year $1 million + incentives w/ Texas Rangers.)
John Smoltz (43) – I’d like to see what Smoltz can do another year removed from shoulder surgery and in a full season back in the NL. Staying in St. Louis makes sense for both sides and Smoltz should be willing to accept a deal similar to last year’s. (re-signs for $4.5 million + incentives w/ St. Louis Cardinals.)
Brett Tomko (37) – Tomko looked over matched in New York but then looks like a completely different pitcher against the Yankees with the A’s. Just like their other veteran mid-season acquisition, Adam Kennedy, the A’s have already stated they would entertain a return for Tomko. I concur. (re-signs for 1 year $950K + incentives w/ Oakland Athletics.)
Jarrod Washburn (35) – Based on early reports, Washburn would like to pitch close to his Wisconsin home for either the Brewers or the Twins. I like him better with the Brew Crew, but having him and Doug Davis in the same rotation would be a little redundant. But, I don’t think they have much of a choice. I like Washburn better than Jeff Suppan, so maybe his signing would bump Suppan to the bully. (Signs 2 year $20 million deal w/ Milwaukee Brewers.)
Todd Wellemeyer (31) – The Cards have their fair share of free agents this off season, most of which coming from their starting rotation. I think they move on from Wellemeyer, however. I like him with the Indians since they’re getting thin in their rotation depth but may not have too much money to play with. (Signs 1 year $5 million deal w/ Cleveland Indians.)
Randy Wolf (33) – Type A – Wolf pitched pretty well for the Dodgers, well enough to earn him a multi-year deal I’m sure. The Mets will go hard after Wolf and he’ll slide nicely into the number 2 slot. Hopefully he’ll get some better run support in Queens. (Signs 3 years $38 million dollar contract w/ New York Mets.){UPDATE: Signed w/ Milwaukee Brewers.}
Closers
Mike Gonzalez (31) – Type A – Gonzalez has been long lusted after by the Red Sox. He was in the organization a few years back but had to be returned because of an injury of Brandon Lyon was found, who he was traded for. I think the Sox will push pretty hard for him, despite his type A status. Boston does a nice job catering to fragile players and has strict programs set in place to help prevent future injury. He clearly wouldn’t close in Boston, but he’d be a nice tool for Terry Francona to use in the late innings since he’s not prejudice against either hand denomination. (Signs 2 year $10 million deal w/ Boston Red Sox.) Kevin Gregg (32) – Type A – Gregg had a rough go in his first year with the Cubs and prompted a switch to Carlos Marmol at one point. He was eventually switched back but he won’t be returning to the North Side anytime soon. I like him in Atlanta as a cheap alternative to Soriano and Gonzalez who will most certainly be leaving for greener pastures. (Signs 1 year $3.4 million deal w/ Atlanta Braves.) J.J. Putz (33) – $9.15MM club option with a $1MM buyout – I like Putz in Detroit as a cheap replacement for Fernando Rodney. I say cheap because he’s coming off a pretty significant arm injury. He could also be used as a set up guy to Zumuya if they see fit. (signs 1 year $1.5 million + incentives w/ Detroit Tigers.){UPDATE: Signed w/ Chicago White Sox.} Fernando Rodney (33) – Type B – Rodney and the Tigers finally move on. I like Rodney better in the NL. The Phillies could use him as Brad Lidge insurance and as a replacement for Brett Myers. (signs 2 year $10 million deal w/ Philadelphia Phillies.) Rafael Soriano (30) – Type A – Soriano is another guy the Red Sox have been hot after over the years, but I think they’ll chose Gonzalez over Soriano this off-season. I like Soriano in Houston since they may not be able to retain Valverde. (signs 1 year $5.3 million deal w/ Houston Astros.){UPDATE: accepted arbitration/re-signed w/ Atlanta Braves, subsequently traded to the Tampa Bay Rays.} Jose Valverde (32) – Type A – Valverde is entering is first go at free-agency. He’s made out pretty well in the last couple years of arbitration, but may not be in line for the same annual rate in this economic climate. I do like him staying in Texas, though not with Houston. Even with the Rangers’ financial woes I think they find a way to bring aboard Valverde. (signs 3 year $33 million deal w/ Texas Rangers.)
Billy Wagner (38) – Type A – Wagner has already been linked to a handful of teams, some even saying he’d be their closer. I like Wagner better in a swing role where he could close if necessary, but not be relied on to be their every day closer. I like him staying in the AL East, but this time with the Tampa Bay Rays. (Signs 1 year $5 million deal with vesting option for $10 million in 2011 w/ Tampa Bay Rays.){UPDATE: signed w/ Atlanta Braves.}
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first round of updates I didn’t fare so well. Winter meetings start this coming week, so I’m sure there will be a fair share of transactions. I was way off with the money on Alex Gonzalez. He knew the Sox were interested but didn’t want to wait around, so he scooped up a starting gig ASAP. I like the Vizquel and Andruw Jones moves. The Pale Hose should have a deep bench. Arbitration offers are in, the deadline for the players to accept is coming up as well. Only 2 last year accepted, I thnk Rafael Bentencourt will accept this year, that’s it. Schnieder to the Phillies I like as well, I thought for sure based on his comments this year that he would want a starting gig and wait out as long as possible. He should be a lot more fresh in a reserve role. Both Kieth Law and I feel the Braves paid too much for Billy Wagner and I now I hope they keep one of Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano as insurance for Wagner and his elbow. Stay Tuned.
-Verbal